Stewardship
To survive and thrive the next hundred years and the next million, humans must exercise stewardship of our activities and impacts on the planet. With global warming, we are now beginning to realize that there is a risk of near extinction due to human caused conditions.
There are mammals that have already lived tens of millions of years, and there are some that only survived a few million years before failure of their habitat and resources lead to their extinction. Humans have similar risks that are being ignored. Risks we need to address. Only with the recent threat of global warming has humanity considered the possibility of extinction or near extinction. Humans have not previously considered the risk of near term extinction.
A primary concern of this Society is the careful conservation of non-renewable resources. They are called non-renewable because they exist in finite amounts, some formed with the creation of the planet, others, like fossil fuels take tens of millions of years and special conditions to form. Once we use these resources, they are effectively gone forever. While global warming is a near future threat to humanity, our rapid use of non-renewable resources is a long-term threat. Our current dependance on non-renewable resources and our discharge of waste and hazardous materials into the environment puts our species and other life forms at risk in the near and distant future.
Much of society has long held that the earth is now stable, completed for human occupation. But how stable or unstable has earth proven to be? The earth is about 4.5 billion years old. But only 200 million years ago active separation of major landmasses occurred and continues to a lesser degree today. We should not assume the end of earthquakes and volcanic activity. Recent scientific research in geologic history shows that there will continue to be catastrophic natural events such as earthquakes, volcanos, and severe weather. Even assuming one large catastrophic event every 10,000 years, over 100 of these events will occur in the next million years. We need to prepare and not in denial of this possibility.
Can humans survive a million years? Will we deplete and pollute the very resources we need to survive? Will we cause so much destruction and contamination of the planet at we are the reason for our own demise? Advancements in science and technology can solve many future problems, but advancement will be limited and difficult if society and planet are not stable.
The Million Year Society assumes that while humanity will be seriously challenged, it will not end. If we are to survive and thrive the next million years, we will need good science, plans, cooperation and resources. Long-term human survival and prosperity will largely depend on human resiliency and earth’s resources.
A Forum for Information and Posting of Ideas
Examples of Topics for Research and Discussion
Energy. Switching from non-renewable energy production to renewable is in progress. What might be the challenges over the new few millennia? What might be the limit of renewables? What will be renewable energy waste products and secondary, adverse impacts, such as waste heat? What might be the best strategies for a stable, efficient, and resilient energy grid?
Food: Farmland is being converted to other uses. Is this sustainable? Should governments play a stronger role in protecting agricultural land use for future generations? While this century is seeing advancements in food production, what are the long-term sustainable conditions for food production? As climate changes, for what every reason, the productive farmland of today may not be viable in the future. The massive volcanic activity of 536 AD greatly reduced agricultural production in the northern hemisphere for years. And it is more than food just for humans. Humans are dependent on the natural ecosystem. All living organisms depend on food, and humanity is dependent on the success of many other living organisms for food production..
Pollution. Humans and our activities are tremendous users of resources and generators of waste which is polluting the environment faster than it can be absorbed or converted into useful products (recycled) and otherwise eliminated. The organic waste of 300 million years ago produced coal. Should we be planning a 300-million-year life cycle? Clean water is becoming more scarce which increases the need to process water for human consumption. Global air quality is worsening. What does this mean for human health?
Social: Will we mature as a society? Will there be evolution of human intellect. Will our minds expand over in 1 million years, or do we have evolutionary limits? Will increasing reliance on artificial intelligence increase or decrease human abilities to be creative, thrive and be resilient to future events? Few of our religions are forward thinking although some acknowledge the importance of stewardship. Is it not our nature to plan ahead? Are we so distracted by today’s problems and selfish not to think about the needs of future generations and our families?
Population: Does the planet have a people limit? How might we manage population if there was a limit? What are the economic issues of a society that is not expanding? Is over population a distribution problem? Are concerns about low birth rates an economic issue as the current economic model is based on growth or a long-term survival concern?
Geologic Challenges: There is a risk of major catastrophes from geologic processes. Volcanism has been a reason for previous near extinction events and localized serious damages. We will continue to experience tectonic activity resulting in destruction from earthquakes and tsunamis. Earth’s magnetic field is likely to switch sometime in the next million again as it has in the past. Its transition may reduce the strength of earth’s magnetic field that protects humans from solar radiation. What might be our efforts and techniques for survival from future geological events?
Climate: An opportunity for study would be to assume the current global warming process will be catastrophic. If so, what period of time will it take for the earth to once again stabilize sufficiently for human viability and prosperity? The planet may experience one of more ice-ages; the last ice age peaked only about 20,000 years ago.
Governance: What form of governance, of leadership, might be the best way to ensure long term survival? Authoritarian? Constitutional republic? In the US, private ownership rights manage resource extraction and development. As conservation of limited materials, land use (agricultural vs development) and urban growth becomes more critical, how might private rights of development and land use change?
Religion: How will religion play a role in promoting sustainability and a stable civilization? What are the religious beliefs that might be challenged. Some religions have promoted and continue the myth of ‘super abundance’. Some place humans at the center of the universe, yet in the last 100 years we have come to understand that there is not just our galaxy, but over two trillion. How might religions adjust to growing understanding of the universe and help us survive the next million years?
Cultural preservation: To archive human history and planetary records, we will need both digital and physical preservation strategies. A student of history in the 50th century should have the resources available to study the extraction (mining) industry of the 20th century? We are preserving pre-history and modern artifacts? How might this continue for another million years? The collections of the great ancient libraries: Alexandria, Uruk, Ashurbanipal and Babylon, all gone in only a few thousand years due to wars and repression of intellectual and scholarly endeavors. How can we prevent this in the future?
Economics. Describe an economy that is not based on growth and continuing extraction of non-renewable resources to generate new wealth. How will global trade work? What will be traded? What commodities will have high values? What will generate wealth besides the scarcity of a commodity? Travel is a large part of trade. Energy use for travel is high per capita. How can energy use for tourism, for movement of commodities, be reduced to maintain commerce yet reduce environmental impacts?
Renewables. Expanding on renewable resources is a low priority for discussion for the Million Year Society. The primary concern is the preservation of non-renewables and the rate of use so that vitally necessary non-renewables are available in one-million years. We hope science and technology will be able to provide substitutes and renewable resources, but that should not be assumed for all raw materials.
Recycle: How might we use the ‘trash’ from previous centuries? Humans are likely to always generate waste and will be doing so in a million years. What might be a business model for total recycling? Can we eliminate waste? Can we close, balance, the ecological loop of human activity?
Ecological Dependance. What are the forms of life in the natural world on which we will always depend? There are many. Bees being near the top for food production. Create a prioritized list relative to human existence leading to discussion of how to maintain these resources. ( And hopefully the rest of the natural world). But this is not a Society with a focus on protection of all earth life forms. What might be the reasons humans cannot survive one-million years?
Structures: Structures require materials and energy. Today, there are estimates and assumptions regarding the longevity of a structure. How can we improve the life cycle of our structures – both by policies (standards) and materials? We tear down older structures, that are perfectly good, to make way for newer modern structures which may also be torn down in 100 years. How can we slow this cycle to preserve the carbon investment in current structures. For energy efficiency, sustainability, stability, and strength in the face of natural catastrophes, what might be the best building designs. What materials and architectural designs will be best for insulation from heat, cold and catastrophes?
Industry: What will be the industries of the 50th century? What will be the materials available for production when the use of non-renewable resources becomes very expensive or no longer available? Production requires equipment. What might be the design of equipment that is flexible and adoptable to producing new products? How might industry survive without mineral extraction for new materials?
“Planet B”: Some futurists talk about finding and moving to another planet. Is this realistic? What would it take to move eight billion people. Or is this for a select few for the preservation of a remnant of a species while billions of humans perish on planet ‘A’? What might be the risk of being an alien species on an alien planet? (The ending of the movie “don’t look up” comes to mind.) We should not accept ‘Planet B’ as a realistic alternative.
Planetary History Informs Us
On the planetary scale a million years is a short time. The species homo sapiens is only about 300,000 years old. What can planetary history tell us about the future events possible for this planet?
If humanity can survive planetary challenges, human habitability is set by the Sun’s evolution. Given the Sun’s life cycle, science estimates that the earth will remain habitable for humans for at least another 1.5 billion years. That’s 1,500 million of years, and the Society is only thinking about the next million. Perhaps we should plan on 25 million years, or do we think humans will be extinct before the sun dies?
Humanity is part of the current Phanerozoic Eon. This started about 541 million years ago. This is the first eon characterized by the diverse and extensive development of “visible life” of complex organisms. Within this Eon there have been 13 distinct ‘periods’ and five major extinction events have already occurred. The end of the Permian Period occurred about 250 million years ago when intense volcanic activity caused significant global warming and changed the chemistry of the oceans. About 96 % of all species died. Only 50 million years later, the Triassic Period ended due to underwater volcanic activity causing another global warming event and again changing ocean chemistry. About 80% of all species died. Sixty-six million years ago, the global cataclysm of an asteroid’s impact resulted in rapid cooling. About 76% of all species died, ending the age of the dinosaurs.
While a few mammal species existed over 200 million years ago, the age of mammals began following the meteor extinction event that ended the reign of dinosaurs. It should not be forgotten that it took an estimated 10 million years for the earth to recover, to stabilize from that event.
While some believe the current global warming may be an extinguishing event, even if it is not, there is a high likelihood of other catastrophic events over the next million years. We should be prepared. As an example: History has largely forgotten that in the year 536 AD, a massive volcanic eruption followed by another in 539, put so much ash in the northern atmosphere that it blocked the sun for over 18 months plunging the northern hemisphere into darkness leading to the coldest global decade in 2,300 years. Northern hemisphere crops failed and famine for all species occurred. This was a mini-ice age lasted over 100 years. Are we prepared for such an event? Many societies believe the Earth’s creation period is finished, but research reveals that major geologic events will continue. All the continents are still moving, floating on Earth’s hot mantle. The North American plate is moving southwesterly at about 2.3 cm per year.
There will be many challenges in humanities’ future. The Million Year Society wants to consider the needs of humanity over the next million years.